Western states are mired in negotiations over future Colorado River cutbacks, but state officials agree on one point: A presidential changeover won’t derail the process.
Colorado River Basin officials have to stick to a tight, federally regulated timeline to replace water management rules that were created in 2007 and will expire in 2026. Negotiations over the new rules will overlap with leadership changes in Washington, D.C., when President-elect Donald Trump steps back into office. But new administrations have not disrupted basin negotiations in the past, and state officials don’t expect big issues this time around either.
“The deadline’s the deadline, regardless of who’s at Interior, who’s at Reclamation and frankly who’s representing the states,” said John Entsminger, Nevada’s top negotiator and general manager for the Southern Nevada Water Authority.
The 2007 rules were created in response to several years of drought — the beginning of a two-decade megadrought that elevated concerns about the future water supplies for 40 million people, including Coloradans from the Western Slope to the Front Range.
The Bureau of Reclamation is analyzing several alternatives for the new, post-2026 rules. Reclamation declined to comment on questions about the upcoming transition, saying it plans to keep working with basin stakeholders.
But replacing the 2007 guidelines comes with a strict timeline: Reclamation needs time to draft the new rules, hold public comment, handle revisions, comply with required waiting periods and more before 2026, said Anne Castle, who formerly oversaw water and science policy for the Department of the Interior.
“If you back up all those timelines, there’s not that much time left,” Castle, the federal representative on the Upper Colorado River Commission, said.
If the basin states want Reclamation to consider a seven-state agreement in its analysis, they have until spring 2025 to submit it, she said.
State negotiators, including Colorado River Commissioner Becky Mitchell of Colorado, said they are committed to continuing the negotiations.
“I don’t think there’s any doubt that if we come up with something that we — the seven states — can live with, that it would be satisfactory to Reclamation,” said Gene Shawcroft, Utah’s top negotiator and chair of Colorado River Authority of Utah. “The onus is still on us as states to come up with a solution.”
But the talks are at an impasse, said JB Hamby, California’s top negotiator. In recent years, federal involvement has helped push the states to consensus, and that involvement is vital going forward, he said.
However, over the next year, that federal involvement could be hampered by leadership transitions. Historically, presidents install new officials in top leadership positions, and it can take up to a year to install new leaders, like the Secretary of the Interior and Bureau of Reclamation commissioner.
“Whatever the background the next commissioner will have, no matter where in the West they may come from … it’s critical to have that direct federal involvement in that particular role as promptly as possible,” said Hamby, chairman and Colorado River commissioner for the Colorado River Board of California.
This isn’t the first time basin officials are debating weighty river issues during an administration change, several state negotiators said. Party politics don’t typically cause seismic shifts in Colorado River policy — the basin splits more along geographic lines or by type of water use.
For example, the transition from former President Barack Obama’s administration to the first Trump administration did not interrupt the basin’s negotiations over additional drought-response plans, which were finalized under Trump in 2019.
Tom Buschatske, who is the director of the Arizona Department of Water Resources and the state’s top negotiator, said he is not expecting delays this time either.
“I’m going to somewhat hang my hat on the fact that, over the last almost 25 years now, when you see past administrations change, we’ve not really seen that impacting the path forward, or the pinch points and deadlines, at least for the Colorado River,” Buschatzke said.
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